*Ntibinyane Ntibinyane
Namibia’s upcoming elections have sparked a flurry of speculation. Just weeks after Botswana’s ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was ousted from power after an unprecedented 58-year uninterrupted reign, many are asking whether a similar political earthquake could occur in Namibia
For 34 years, the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) has dominated the country’s politics. But, with rising discontent over economic stagnation, unemployment, and allegations of corruption, the question looms large: is SWAPO’s grip on power finally slipping, or will it once again rally its loyal base and prove resilient against the winds of change?
Some political observers and opposition figures across the continent, particularly in Southern Africa, have invested significant attention in Namibia’s November 27 elections, seeing them as a potential litmus test for the resilience of liberation movements that have transitioned into ruling parties. This investment is evident on social media and public discourse, where many are already counting SWAPO’s days in power or debating its ability to defy the odds once again.
These debates draw natural comparisons to Botswana, where a similar political narrative recently unfolded.
The parallels between Botswana and Namibia are hard to ignore. Both countries have long been hailed as bastions of stability in a region marked by political and economic upheavals. Yet, stability often breeds complacency, and ruling parties accustomed to unchallenged dominance can find themselves blindsided by a restless electorate. Remember what happened to the once-dominant African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, which recently lost its popular majority. The once intractable BDP is now the fourth-largest party in Parliament.
These shifts underscore a growing trend: the electorate’s willingness to challenge longstanding political hegemony when promises of progress remain unfulfilled.
The question is: will Namibians, like their neighbours in Botswana, decide it’s time for a change, or will SWAPO defy the odds and extend its rule? Could SWAPO face the same fate as its regional counterparts?
It isn’t easy to tell. There are no rigorous opinion polls to gauge the mood of the electorate in Namibia, as is the case in most African countries. This often forces analysts and observers to rely on anecdotal evidence and the pulse of public discourse. However, the recent Afrobarometer survey offers some insight. Conducted between March 14 and April 2, 2024, and released in August, the survey asked 1,200 adult citizens, “If national elections were held tomorrow, which candidate’s party would you vote for?” Approximately 51% said SWAPO. However, in politics, March feels like a distant memory, and much can change in the months leading up to the election.
In this article, I map out possible scenarios that might unfold in Namibia’s November 27 elections. This analysis is based only on recent interviews with colleagues in Namibia, particularly by my friend and colleague Tileni Mongudhi, available data, historical patterns, and recent political developments within Namibia and the region. This is certainly not a scientific prediction but rather an informed exploration of potential outcomes as Namibia stands at a political crossroads.
I am proposing five scenarios that could emerge from Namibia’s November 27 elections:
First scenario: SWAPO wins everything
In the first scenario, it is possible that SWAPO could emerge from the elections as a victor. In this case, winning the polls means securing both the presidential seat and a majority in Parliament, allowing the party to maintain its dominance over Namibia’s political landscape. This outcome would signal that despite growing public dissatisfaction, SWAPO’s historical legacy, rural support base, and political machinery remain formidable. It could also suggest that its presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, was able to galvanize support and position herself as an effective leader. It would also mean that opposition parties have failed to present a compelling alternative or mobilize voters effectively enough to disrupt the status quo.
If that were to happen, the victory might come with a smaller margin than SWAPO enjoyed in previous elections. Instead, it could be a narrower win, reflecting growing dissatisfaction among urban voters and younger demographics. A reduced margin of victory would signal cracks in SWAPO’s dominance, even as it retains power. It would likely put pressure on the party to address economic grievances and improve governance to secure its position in the future.
This scenario would be welcomed by other liberation parties like South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) and Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, which are similarly grappling with declining public support. A SWAPO win will be seen by these parties as a testament to the resilience of liberation-era parties in the face of mounting challenges. However, it would also serve as a cautionary tale, highlighting the urgency of reform and the growing impatience of electorates across the region with stagnant governance and unmet promises of progress.
However, a key question that I have asked some of my Namibian colleagues remains: can Nandi-Ndaitwah outperform SWAPO’s late president, Hage Geingob, who was re-elected in 2019 with just 56% of the vote—the party’s worst performance since independence? The voters must weigh whether the 71-year-old Nandi-Ndaitwah represents a genuine shift toward addressing their grievances or simply a continuation of the status quo under new leadership.
The second scenario: SWAPO loses presidential elections but wins parliamentary majority
In this case, it would mean that the opposition leader, Panduleni Itula of Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), manages to garner enough support to win the presidency, likely by uniting opposition supporters and voters dissatisfied with SWAPO’s leadership around his candidature. In the 2019 elections, Itula, running as an independent candidate, secured an impressive 30% of the vote. This strong showing demonstrated his ability to challenge SWAPO’s dominance and attract widespread support. Indeed, if he builds on this momentum in 2024, it is possible that the 67-year-old Itula could unseat SWAPO’s presidential candidate.
However, under this scenario, the opposition and disgruntled SWAPO voters will have to disregard other opposition presidential candidates and consolidate their support behind Itula as the strongest contender to unseat SWAPO’s leadership. But the opposition in Namibia is bitterly divided. On the other side, SWAPO would still likely retain a majority in Parliament, reflecting its entrenched support in rural areas and its well-established political machinery.
But how would it look with a president from the opposition and a parliament still dominated by SWAPO? This would likely create a challenging political landscape, with the new president needing to navigate a legislature controlled by the very party he campaigned against. But this is a possibility.
The third scenario: Opposition wins the parliamentary majority and loses the presidential elections
To win a parliamentary majority in Namibia, a political party or coalition needs to secure at least 50% of the National Assembly’s 96 seats. What this means is that the winning party will have secured more than 48 seats in Parliament. In the last elections, SWAPO managed to secure 63 seats, a comfortable majority but significantly reduced from its 2014 performance, when it won 77 seats. According to some analysts, there is a possibility that the party’s parliamentary candidates may perform worse than its presidential candidates.
Political parties, such as the Independent Patriots for Change, Popular Democratic Movement (main opposition party in parliament), Affirmative Repositioning (AR), Landless People’s Movement, and others, are expected to do well at the parliamentary level.
In this scenario, opposition parties could collectively secure enough seats to surpass SWAPO’s majority, even if SWAPO retains the presidency. This would create a divided government, with an opposition-controlled parliament acting as a counterbalance to the executive. In my view, this would be a healthy development for Namibia’s democracy and the region, as it would introduce greater checks and balances into the political system. An opposition-controlled parliament could hold the executive branch accountable, push for more inclusive policymaking, and ensure diverse voices are represented in the country’s governance.
Fourth Scenario: A re-run of presidential elections
The opposition parties in Namibia are fragmented and often struggle to present a unified front against the dominant SWAPO party. But in this election, considering the strength of opposition parties like Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) and Affirmative Repositioning (AR), this fragmentation may lead to something unexpected: a more competitive and dynamic presidential race. The outcome of this may mean that no party candidate secures an outright majority.
According to the Namibian Constitution, if no presidential candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election must be held between the two candidates with the highest number of votes. A runoff could significantly shift the dynamics of the race, forcing opposition parties to rally around a single candidate to challenge SWAPO’s nominee. It would also provide voters with a stark choice between continuity under SWAPO or change under the opposition. How would voters respond when it comes down to Nandi-Ndaitwah versus Itula or potentially another strong opposition figure, say Professor Job Amupanda? This will be SWAPO’s worst-case scenario because a united opposition may consolidate enough support to win the presidential poll.
Scenario five: Opposition makes significant gains without ousting SWAPO, and the emergence of new opposition faces
In this scenario, similar to the first scenario, SWAPO retains both the presidency and a parliamentary majority but with a significantly reduced margin. Opposition parties, though unable to displace SWAPO entirely, could gain a stronger foothold in Parliament and further erode the party’s dominance. This outcome would signal a growing appetite for change among the electorate while leaving SWAPO with the daunting task of reconciling its legacy with the demands of a more skeptical and divided populace. It would also provide opposition parties a platform to continue building momentum toward future elections.
Moreover, this scenario could pave the way for the emergence of new opposition faces and leaders who can resonate with a broader electorate and articulate a clear alternative vision for Namibia’s future. For example, Professor Job Amupanda has emerged as a prominent figure, especially among younger voters, with his bold rhetoric and focus on land reform, economic justice, and youth empowerment. The 37-year-old’s leadership within Affirmative Repositioning (AR) has positioned him as a potential game-changer, appealing to those seeking a break from traditional politics.
To conclude, while there is excitement about what happened in Botswana and speculation about whether Namibia will follow a similar path, the reality is far more complex. As you have probably noticed, I have not included a scenario where the opposition wins everything. While it is a possibility, with the fragmentation of the opposition, this would likely be an uphill battle.
The scenarios I have outlined demonstrate that Namibia’s political landscape is at a critical juncture, shaped by both the enduring strength of SWAPO’s historical legacy and the growing appetite for change among its electorate. Whether through a narrow SWAPO victory, a divided government, a runoff election, or the emergence of new opposition leaders, the November 27 elections are likely to redefine the country’s political trajectory.
The question remains: will Namibia’s voters deliver a political earthquake akin to Botswana’s, or will they chart a unique course that blends continuity with incremental change? Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain, Namibia’s elections will be a turning point, not only for its own democratic journey but also as a reflection of shifting political dynamics across Southern Africa.
*This article was first published on Sunday Standard paper dated Nov. 24, 2024
AlVIN Ntibinyane 
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